Umir: This 343 has to go or Villa face a relegation scrap

Villa's performance to Arsenal was nothing but lost. Despite investment, they fear getting drawn into a relegation battle unless they change shape, style or coach.

On Friday, Villa travelled to the Emirates stadium to face an Arsenal side in good form. Before the season began, a faux-rivalry bubbled between the two clubs centred around various sub-plots, one being the theoretical transfer of Emile Smith-Rowe. Poetically, Smith-Rowe was the scorer of the third Arsenal goal, an impressive action in transition following a week in which he’d announced his desire to retire a one-club man.

Buendia and his inclusion in the side is another point to highlight given there were reports linking Buendia to both Arsenal and Villa in the summer, before the Argentinian found place in the claret and blue of Villa. 

Villa added to the Buendia signing with additional big profile acquisitions in the form of Ings and Bailey. Their star player in Grealish left but there was this hope that the money garnered form his record transfer would elevate Aston Villa to the next level a la Liverpool post-Coutinho sale. This has not been the case. 

Dean Smith has opted for a 352 or 532 on paper that plays more like a 523 or 5122 when we observe how Buendia and McGinn might contribute to the attack. The game against Arsenal, at its core, highlighted a fundamental problem of shape and space. 

McGinn and (primarily) Luiz existed on an island alone from the rest of the departments of the team - unable to retain the ball, a matter partly explained by poor individual execution but in large part due to the fact the wingbacks, third midfielder in Buendia and wide centre-backs failed to show for the ball. 

At times in possession, Villa built up in what still looked like a 4 at the back. The RCB of the three pushed out into the RB position, the RB pushed up as a RM, Tuanzebe and Mings occupied the CB positions and the LB played as a LB.

The issue here is that in front of them Luiz remained isolated as the single DM. McGinn and Buendia played higher as 8s which was particularly problematic because with Villa ended up with their two CBs on the ball with options to find FBs (who could have been easily pressed) - with all 4 defenders having one progressive option that wasn’t the long ball: Douglas Luiz. 

Ideally here, to avoid the Arsenal press, which has shown to been especially impressive in the first 20-25 minutes of games before deteriorating, you need a numerical overload. It is evident the spaces are quite large between the Villa players and unless there is exceptional technical quality, this sort of set-up is asking for goals conceded to self-induced errors. Self-enforced errors at Chelsea for example were seen when Villa conceded and lost to them earlier in the season.

Dropping McGinn and/or Buendia deeper here means either the Arsenal midfield follow them freeing up the ball to the wingbacks or long to Watkins. It would also give options to the Villa players in possession too and allow them to hold and progress the ball with more ease.

A 3-2 buildup shape here would be far better than a 4-1 shape (which in practice often looks like a 2-1 shape, the two centre-backs and the 6). 

The self-enforced errors are piled upon further given Mings doesn’t look to be too comfortable to play out of the back, more so in this shape, often hitting the ball long and to the forwards, rather than clipping the ball to the wingbacks. The underutilisation of the wide players in this system is problematic with everything running centrally and as a result the wingbacks become passengers in possession. The game becomes one that relies entire on this square of Watkins, Ings, Buendia and McGinn. 

Mings’ pass selection and this shape offers a systematic explanation for some of what fans and pundits have described as a lack of will, energy or desire. When Villa are pressed, they either have to pass it out from the back, which we’ve elucidated as an issue - or go long and the issue of spacing explains these faults we might describe as lack of desire on first glance.

When Mings hit the ball long to the forwards, the LB and Luiz were too far from the isolated and narrow two of Watkins and Buendia on the left. On the right, Cash was higher up and closer to Ings but Ings is less gifted in the air than Watkins. McGinn can push up to support and win the second ball but he has more responsibility in the first and defensive phases of the game so is sometimes too deep to be involved.

The gaps between the players meant Arsenal’s midfielders were first to the ball. Even if Villa tried harder or put in more effort, the fact they were too far from the ball to begin with puts them at a considerable disadvantage.

If Buendia or McGinn don’t win the second balls there exists this huge space in midfield that opponents can drive and counter into. Villa would need to minimise these gaps by pushing the backline and Luiz up - which may be something Smith and Villa are uncomfortable with.

Given these problems I suppose it would be beneficial for Villa to move towards either a 523 or a 4231/433 (something we saw in the second half of the Arsenal game). It looks to be an issue of coaching and inexperience that has Villa players in areas not conducive for progression and link-up when they play in their 343 but after moving to a 433, Mings, for example, was suddenly far more comfortable in finding Targett, a ball he struggled with all first half.

There is also great value in an outlet, runner and dribbler in Leon Bailey, a player that can hold the width, rather than having Villa’s attack become congested centrally. His cameo in the second half was impressive and he looked to be Villa’s most dangerous player. The additional width and gravitas teams allocate to a player like Bailey would naturally free up space in the centre for the like of Ings and late midfield runs.

Fundamentally, it is also key for Villa to keep their side centrally compact. McGinn offers a great amount pushing up but if it is at the expense of being a side comfortable in the build up and strong in transitional defence, it is not worth it. I’d pair him quite strictly with Luiz.

Lastly, Buendia as an exciting summer signing comes with an expectation of having to be played and often, but I would look towards Jacob Ramsey - a player who has been quite great in the England U21 matches I have seen him in.

Ramsey has a sense of when to push up and when to play in the spaces of midfield. Playing him as a sort of 8 or 10 with McGinn on the other side, anchored by Luiz looks to be a balanced midfield, as when McGinn does decide to venture forward Ramsey has the know-how to drop deeper, cover and build up play. As a player with a sense of goals and assists too, Ramsey is a player I like the look of, albeit in this small-ish sample size.

Those are some of the tweaks Villa have to opt for otherwise there is a fear the pendulum swings in the opposite direction from last season. The signs are slightly ominous. They possess the players to play a 532 (rather than a 5212 or 5122, which still confuses me) but I don’t think there is the time or natural expertise from Dean Smith on how to coach spacing and patterns of play in that shape. Rather, Smith has found success in his balanced 4231 previously.

For this reason, a return to a 433 or 4231 at least, short to mid-term, steadying the ship would be advisable. When Villa sit in a comfortable position in the league, or against teams where the 3 or 5 at the back makes sense (ie the Chelsea game) - bringing a 5 defender system back would make sense.

For now, there’s a need to cater to the players, win some games and get the fans on side.